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02.11.2022 11:35 PM
"We rolled your recession": investors refuse to accept the rules of the bear market
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A study by the Swiss bank UBS found that, despite worries about inflation and geopolitical risks, wealthy investors are optimistic.

"We rolled your recession": investors refuse to accept the rules of the bear market

In the period from September 28 to October 17, UBS surveyed 2,913 investors from around the world who own at least $1 million in investment assets. According to the survey, 59% of large private investors admitted to UBS Group AG that they are optimistic about the short-term prospects of the stock market. This is as much as 50% more than just three months ago, when the markets were about to collapse again after a short rally. As arguments, traders cite high demand for goods and services, a return to normal life after the Covid-19 pandemic and high corporate incomes.

At the same time, different regions show a big difference in the assessment of future events.

Despite record inflation, the energy crisis in Ukraine, European investors are optimistic about the future: 69% of respondents are optimistic about the region's economy in the next 12 months. This is followed by Asia, where 62% of Asian investors positively assess the prospects of the region during the year, although October was a failure for the stock market of the sector. American investors are more pessimistic: only 51% expect a turn to a better life in the United States and almost two-thirds said they believe that a recession is inevitable.

Despite all the warnings of economists, more than half of investors believe that the recession has already begun or will begin before the end of 2022, and will die out soon after.

And although almost two-thirds expect an increase in inflation next year, it does not seem to bother big traders too much, who definitely always have enough for a bun with butter and paying electricity bills. But they are not sitting idly by either: almost half have already cut costs, while 31% said they plan to save less to offset the effects of rising prices.

This sharp surge of optimism is quite interesting as a market phenomenon. Despite the obvious facts and figures, people do not want to give up as long as they have the money to participate in transactions. The spread across regions is particularly impressive, which is difficult to explain both in terms of the weight of a particular currency in a basket of currencies and in terms of the state of the economy. Undoubtedly, this psychological confidence, partly based on the fact that a market fall will also bring income with a correct bearish assessment, will lead to the fact that the risks of a recession may well be underestimated. Especially amid expectations of a rapid recovery, at least in the US zone. So we probably expect news of several very high-profile devastations next year. In the meantime, bears definitely shouldn't worry about liquidity. At least in the eurozone and Asia.

Egor Danilov,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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WTI – 西德克薩斯中級原油。價格缺乏增長的支持 西德州中質（WTI）原油價格正試圖吸引買家，但市場仍然處於不確定狀態。 對特朗普總統激進貿易關稅的擔憂對燃料需求造成壓力，這是限制油價增長的重要因素。
Irina Yanina
12:39 2025-03-31 +02:00
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基础分析
歐元/美元。分析與預測 在亞洲市場的新一周開始時，歐元/美元匯率試圖吸引買家，但此舉未能成功。 歐元因歐盟與美國之間貿易戰淡化的擔憂而獲得支持。
Irina Yanina
12:35 2025-03-31 +02:00
1030
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