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15.06.2023 10:30 AM
Mixed Fed Meeting Outcome Pushes Bitcoin to New Local Bottom
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The week of key macroeconomic events continues, and its influence on the global economy is becoming increasingly evident. Following the publication of the inflation report, which had a powerful positive impact, the markets received a cold shower after the Federal Reserve meeting and the officials' statements.

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Despite the regulator's actions aligning with expectations, most key assets, especially high-risk ones, experienced an unexpected decline. Bitcoin became one of the main victims of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's statement and experienced a significant drop below $25k.

Results of the Federal Reserve meeting

Some market players had doubts about the Fed's actions regarding the key interest rate. However, over 75% of investors were confident that the agency would take a pause in rate hikes. The drop in inflation to 4% increased the percentage of those who believed in the Fed's hawkish policy pause to 95%.

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The markets were in a pleasant ecstasy after inflation fell below forecasted levels. The Fed indeed paused rate hikes in June, but Powell's subsequent statements shocked the markets. The official noted that the regulator still does not see clear evidence of a rapid decline in inflation to the 2% target level.

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Considering this, the Fed Chairman hinted that as the inflation situation develops, the final benchmark interest rate may be higher than the current 5.25%. Powell also stated that the members of the agency do not see any prerequisites for monetary policy easing in 2023. The Fed believes that maintaining the current rate level until the end of 2023 will help achieve the 2% inflation target.

Bitcoin sets a new local low

Amid Powell's mixed statements, Bitcoin began to decline and, at the end of the previous trading day, fell below the $25k level for the first time in three months. On June 14, buyers managed to push the cryptocurrency's price back above $25k, but the second wave of decline did not allow the price to hold above that level.

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Bitcoin's technical metrics indicate further decline towards the target level of $24.6k. The RSI index has broken the 30 mark, and the stochastic oscillator is undergoing a bearish crossover. The MACD has also resumed its downward movement, indicating the formation of a sustainable downward trend.

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If the $24.6k level is breached, the structure of the upward trend that allowed BTC to reach $31k will be completely disrupted. All medium-term bearish targets will be achieved, and the price of BTC will continue to decline towards $23.5k–$24k. However, it is important to understand that for this bearish scenario to unfold, bears need to close the trading session below $24.6k.

As of 08:00 UTC, we do not see any activation of buyers or indications of a potential rebound. On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin maintains a downward dynamic and does not show signals of a likely rebound. Everything suggests that BTC will at least retest the $24.6k level.

Conclusion

Bitcoin has set a new local low, which is the main takeaway after the publication of inflation data and the Federal Reserve meeting. These were key events that negatively impacted BTC price movement and may significantly strengthen sellers' positions.

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The release of the labor market report is also expected, but its results are not expected to affect the asset's price. Therefore, if the cryptocurrency finishes the trading day below $25k, the local upward trend can be considered completed.

Artem Petrenko,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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