Analisis Forex & Kajian: 25.02.2021 - Oil prices confidently rise...

25.02.2021 04:21 PM

Oil prices confidently rise despite negative factors

Early today, oil prices showed positive dynamic amid expectations of higher demand. Market participants are looking forward to a jump in oil demand after the stabilization of weather in the US after the recent abnormal frosts. Investors' sentiment was not spoiled even by the negative flash data on the US oil reserves.

According to the recent data received from the US Energy Department, during the week that ended on February 19, oil inventories advanced by 1.28 million barrels. Preliminary estimates provided by analysts at Bloomberg showed even a bigger jump of 6.5 million barrels. At the same time, experts at S&P Global Platts had expected a drop of 4.8 million barrels. However, neither of the forecasts came true. In general, the situation does not look positive. Nevertheless, market participants still hope for the best.

Total oil refining volumes decreased by 2.6 million barrels per day. The Mexican coast of the US was hit more than other regions. Here, about 90% of the capacity was stopped due to adverse weather conditions and the strongest snow storm. Moreover, this forced reduction in the production of crude oil exceeded a decline in oil production, which just in one week reached the level of 1.1 million barrels per day.

At the same time, market participants almost ignored all these bearish signals. The bullish sentiment remained the same amid optimistic predictions concerning the future slide in the number of new virus cases. The active battle against the coronavirus pandemic has boosted investors' sentiment.

Even now, the mass vaccination campaigns are gaining momentum. The vaccine is becoming more available for people. This led to the lifting of some restrictive measures imposed to curb the virus spread. All this may push demand for oil and fuel significantly higher.

In some countries, people have already begun travelling more than during the pandemic. This, in turn, is boosting demand for fuel to the pre-crisis levels. In particular, fuel consumption in China and India has already reached the levels logged in 2019.

European countries expect such a rise as early as next month. However, the situation has already changed for the better. According to the forecasts, in February, consumption of petrol may advance by 60 thousand barrels a day. At least, mobility indices in five largest EU countries, including the UK, Germany, Spain, France, and Italy, are confidently moving up. At the moment, they are just 37.7% lower than before the crisis. Notably, just a week ago, the difference was 40.4%.

Brent futures for April delivery inched up by 0.6% or $0.4 to settle at $67.44 per barrel. On Wednesday, Brent crude closed with a rise of 2.6% or $1.67. As a result, the oil contracts hit $67.07 per barrel, the level last seen almost two months ago.

At the same time, WTI futures for April delivery grew by 0.46% or $0.29 to trade at $63.51 per barrel. On Wednesday, the asset closed the trading session in the green zone with the total rise of 2.5% or $1.55. Thus, the price reached its two-month high of $63.22 per barrel.

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Maria Shablon,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
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