empty
02.03.2023 01:32 PM
Inflation problems resurface in eurozone

The euro jumped to a new one-week high because inflation in Germany unexpectedly surged in February. This complicated the ECB's goal to struggle against high inflation as CPIs also climbed in other EU countries.

This image is no longer relevant

The federal statistics agency Destatis reported that Germany's consumer prices rose to 9.3% in February from a year ago following a 9.2% increase in January. This acceleration is directly driven by the growth in prices of services and food even despite the fact that the authorities took measures to curb utility bills for households. Energy bills reached elevated levels on the back of Russia's aggression in Ukraine which caused bottlenecks in energy supplies to Germany.

Meanwhile, the annual CPI of Germany which is frequently termed the powerhouse of the eurozone's economy rebounded in February. Besides, CPIs in other countries also logged a considerable spike. Higher annual CPIs in France and Spain also caught the market off-guard. Consumer prices in France unexpectedly jumped to a record 7.2% in February from a year ago amid growth in food and services prices. Inflation growth in Spain comes in at 6.1%. Economists share the forecast that consumer prices are set to remain at inflated levels indefinitely.

Soaring inflation in the eurozone forced the market to upgrade the forecast for the ECB's key interest rate. The refi rate might stand at 4.0% in early 2024. The interest rate is now at 2.5%. ECB policymakers warmed the market that the central bank would raise interest rates by another 0.5% in March. Moreover, some policymakers advocate for sharper rate hikes until inflation is firmly brought down to the target level of around 2%. In this context, the regulator will have to tighten its aggressive monetary policy earlier than expected.

Today market participants await the crucial inflation report for the 20 eurozone countries. The reading might surpass expectations. Economists project a slowdown in inflation to 8.3% from 8.6% in January, though the core CPI excluding volatile food and energy prices (which are closely monitored by ECB policymakers) is likely to remain at a record high of 5.3%.

In a recent interview, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel pointed out that the core inflation pressure remains too high. The realistic scenario is that inflation is likely to decline gradually. The CPI for Germany could range from 6% to 7% on average for the whole of 2023. One thing is clear: a rate hike announced for March will not be the final move. Afterwards, the regulator will have to make further drastic moves to raise interest rates, the banker noted in his interview.

Whereas Joachim Nagel refused to speculate about the deadline of the monetary tightening cycle, his French colleague Francois Villeroy de Galhau said in Paris that it was "desirable" for the ECB that the refi rate would peak by September of this year. The head of the Bank of Italy, Ignazio Visco, said that "there is no doubt that the tightening of the euro zone's monetary policy must continue."

This image is no longer relevant

As for the technical picture of EUR/USD, the instrument again came under selling pressure after a nice upward correction. To ensure a further bull market, it is necessary to defend 1.0630 and push the price above 1.0660. From this level, the door will be open to 1.0700 and even update 1.0730. In case EUR/USD declines, I expect activity from large buyers only at the level of 1.0630. If the bulls don't assert themselves there, it would be a good idea to wait until the price falls lower than 1.0590. Once this happens, traders could plan long positions.

Speaking of GBP/USD, the bulls are facing a challenge. To take the lead in the instrument, the buyers have to push the price above 1.2020. Only a breakout of this resistance will reinforce the hope for a further recovery to 1.2070. Then, we could predict a sharper spike to 1.2120. If the bears take control over 1.1970, a breakout of this level will deal a blow to the bulls and push GBP/USD down to 1.1920. Then, the price will head to 1.1870.

Pilih carta masa
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
jam
4
jam
1
hari
1
minggu
Jana pendapatan melalui perubahan kadar mata wang kripto dengan InstaForex.
Muat turun MetaTrader 4 dan buka dagangan pertama anda.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    SERTAI PERADUAN

Artikel yang dicadangkan

EUR/GBP. Analisis dan Ramalan

Pada hari ini, pasangan EUR/GBP sedang kehilangan momentum selepas dua hari berturut-turut menunjukkan kenaikan, berdagang berhampiran paras psikologi 0.8600. Pound mendapat sokongan daripada optimisme sekitar rundingan perdagangan yang sedang berlangsung

Irina Yanina 11:52 2025-04-22 UTC+2

Mengapa Dolar A.S. Terus Menurun

Dolar Amerika Syarikat jatuh ke paras terendah sejak Januari 2024 selepas kritikan daripada Presiden Donald Trump terhadap Rizab Persekutuan menimbulkan kebimbangan mengenai kebebasan bank pusat tersebut. Dolar melemah berbanding semua

Jakub Novak 11:12 2025-04-22 UTC+2

Kehilangan Keyakinan terhadap Rizab Persekutuan Akan Memberikan Tekanan kepada Dolar (Bitcoin Dijangka Terus Meningkat, USD/CAD Berpotensi Menurun)

Pada hari Isnin, pasaran saham AS mengalami penurunan mendadak, yang turut menarik turun banyak bursa global, kerana tindakan "bergejolak" Presiden Trump terus beralih dari satu topik sensasi ke yang lain

Pati Gani 09:00 2025-04-22 UTC+2

Pasaran: Tenang di Permukaan, Bergelora di Dasar

Adalah mustahil untuk menyuntik modal ke dalam ekonomi yang telah diganggu kestabilannya akibat ketegangan politik. Aliran modal terus keluar dari Amerika Syarikat, dan serangan Donald Trump terhadap Rizab Persekutuan hanya

Marek Petkovich 08:52 2025-04-22 UTC+2

Apa yang Perlu Diperhatikan pada 22 April? Penjelasan Fundamental untuk Pedagang Baharu

Tiada peristiwa makroekonomi dijadualkan pada hari Selasa—sama ada di A.S., Zon Euro, Jerman, atau U.K. Oleh itu, walaupun pasaran memberi perhatian kepada data makroekonomi, data tersebut memang tidak tersedia hari

Paolo Greco 07:46 2025-04-22 UTC+2

Gambaran Keseluruhan GBP/USD – 22 April: Kemerosotan Dolar Meneutralkan Sebarang Perubahan Ekonomi Positif

Pasangan mata wang GBP/USD turut diniagakan lebih tinggi pada hari Isnin walaupun tiada sebab yang jelas atau faktor fundamental yang menyokong pergerakan ini. Namun, pound telah pun menunjukkan kenaikan pada

Paolo Greco 03:12 2025-04-22 UTC+2

Gambaran Keseluruhan EUR/USD – 22 April: Maharaja Tidak Berbaju...

Pasangan mata wang EUR/USD memulakan hari Isnin dengan kejatuhan mendadak dari pembukaan. Menariknya, kali ini kejatuhan nilai dolar AS tidak dicetuskan oleh presiden Amerika. Tiada peristiwa spesifik yang menyebabkannya. Pasaran

Paolo Greco 03:12 2025-04-22 UTC+2

Adakah Trump Akan Pecat Powell?

Indeks Dolar AS jatuh ke paras terendah dalam tempoh tiga tahun pada hari Isnin, mencecah julat 97 (buat pertama kali sejak Mac 2022). Dolar memulakan minggu dagangan dengan jurang

Irina Manzenko 01:07 2025-04-22 UTC+2

Panik masih belum reda – dolar sedang dijual, emas terus meningkat, dan indeks S&P 500 sekali lagi berbalik arah ke bawah.

Kedudukan spekulatif menurun keseluruhan pada dolar AS meningkat lebih dua kali ganda sepanjang minggu laporan, mencapai -$10.1 bilion. Dolar Kanada dan yen mengalami pengukuhan yang paling ketara, manakala pergerakan euro

Kuvat Raharjo 01:07 2025-04-22 UTC+2

Dollar Berniat Baik. Tetapi Keadaan Seperti Biasa

Berhati-hatilah dengan apa yang anda impikan. Keinginan Donald Trump untuk menjadikan Amerika hebat semula dan kembali ke zaman kegemilangan sedang memakan diri dengan menghakis kepercayaan terhadap aset Amerika Syarikat, pelarian

Marek Petkovich 01:07 2025-04-22 UTC+2
Tidak boleh bertanya sekarang?
Tanya soalan anda di Ruangan bersembang.
Panggilan semula Widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.