empty
26.03.2025 11:54 AM
XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

This image is no longer relevant

Gold continues to show a positive tone today, but conviction behind the upward movement remains weak. Market uncertainty, driven by the tariffs announced by Donald Trump—set to take effect on April 2—is supporting gold prices at elevated levels and remains a key factor pushing the precious metal north. Meanwhile, the Fed's forecast of two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the end of the year is further fueling the bullish outlook for gold.

At the same time, Russia and Ukraine, following U.S.-brokered negotiations, have reached an agreement to cease military strikes in the Black Sea and on energy infrastructure. Optimism surrounding China's stimulus measures aimed at boosting consumption is supporting positive sentiment in equity markets. This optimism is preventing gold bulls from initiating aggressive buying.

Additionally, some renewed buying of the U.S. dollar—after a pullback from its nearly three-week high—is also deterring traders from placing aggressive long positions in gold. Furthermore, the generally risk-positive market tone is limiting upward potential for the XAU/USD pair.

Today, traders should watch for the U.S. Durable Goods Orders report to provide some short-term momentum for XAU/USD. However, the market's primary focus remains on Friday's release of the U.S. Core PCE Price Index.

Technical Outlook

From a technical standpoint, bullish resilience around the key psychological level of $3000, combined with positive oscillators on the daily chart, suggests that the path of least resistance for gold remains to the upside. A move beyond yesterday's high near the $3036 level would confirm the constructive outlook and potentially lift XAU/USD toward its all-time high reached last week.

On the other hand, the $3000 round figure continues to act as critical support and a pivotal level. A decisive break below this level could trigger technical selling, dragging XAU/USD toward the $2980–2978 level. A deeper correction could extend further toward the next significant support near the previous breakout point—former resistance—at $2956.

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Why Could Gold Prices Drop Significantly? (There's a chance gold will continue to decline while the CFD on the NASDAQ 100 futures contract may rise)

The beginning of actual negotiations could lead to a significant drop in gold prices in the near future. In previous articles, I suggested that the previously surging price of gold

Pati Gani 10:14 2025-04-25 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – April 25: The Fed Is Starting to Worry for Real

The GBP/USD currency pair traded higher on Thursday, remaining near its 3-year highs. Despite the British pound's strong rally in recent months, corrections are still rare in the forex market

Paolo Greco 07:57 2025-04-25 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – April 25: America Files a Lawsuit Against Trump

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade calmly on Thursday, although volatility remained relatively high. This week, the US dollar showed some signs of recovery—something that could already be considered

Paolo Greco 07:57 2025-04-25 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on April 25? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

A few macroeconomic events are scheduled for Friday, but this doesn't matter, as the market continues to ignore 90% of all publications. Among the more or less significant reports today

Paolo Greco 07:06 2025-04-25 UTC+2

The Yen Is Looking Stronger and Stronger

The nationwide Consumer Price Index published last week showed accelerated core inflation in March—from 2.6% to 2.9%. Inflationary pressure is increasing, supporting the case for further interest rate hikes

Kuvat Raharjo 01:23 2025-04-25 UTC+2

Canada Awaits Election Results. USD/CAD Outlook

Last week, the Bank of Canada kept its interest rate unchanged at 2.75%, as expected. The accompanying statement was neutral in tone, emphasizing ongoing uncertainty. Confidence is hard to maintain

Kuvat Raharjo 00:59 2025-04-25 UTC+2

The Australian Dollar Could Suffer If the U.S.-China Trade War Escalates

U.S. President Donald Trump once again commented on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, openly expressing dissatisfaction with the pace of rate cuts. Another public expression of disapproval of the Fed's

Kuvat Raharjo 00:59 2025-04-25 UTC+2

The Euro Is Waiting for Its Moment

When the market does not move as expected, it often goes in the opposite direction. In recent days, the euro has faced a barrage of negative news. Slowing business activity

Marek Petkovich 00:59 2025-04-25 UTC+2

Wall Street keeps White House in line

The market is showing heightened sensitivity to any good news, but its best days are behind it. The value of US equities as a percentage of the MSCI All Country

Marek Petkovich 11:42 2025-04-24 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The Japanese yen maintains a bullish tone despite certain headwinds and remains in focus as renewed global risk aversion fuels demand for safe-haven assets. Diminishing hopes for a swift resolution

Irina Yanina 11:35 2025-04-24 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.