empty
12.03.2025 12:44 AM
The Dollar is Running, Heels Flashing

What is better for the euro: the decline of U.S. economic and dollar supremacy or a "Sputnik moment" in Germany? Berlin's refusal to use the fiscal brake resembles launching a rocket into space. Coupled with concerns about a U.S. recession, this has pushed the EUR/USD exchange rate above 1.090. The last time this major currency pair reached these levels was during the U.S. presidential elections in early November. Donald Trump's unpredictable behavior caused investors to turn away from the American president.

In March, the USD index dropped by more than 2.5%, marking its worst performance since late 2023. At that time, the Federal Reserve announced a dovish pivot, prompting financial markets to begin preparing for a rate cut. However, the acceleration of U.S. inflation in the first quarter of 2024 delayed the start of monetary easing until September, allowing the U.S. dollar to strengthen and set the stage for a competitive advantage in the G10 currency race.

US Dollar Index Monthly Dynamics

This image is no longer relevant

Trump made this victory possible for the dollar. He made grand promises to return to the White House, and investors believed him. His fiscal stimulus was supposed to supercharge an already strong U.S. economy, while tariffs would further slow down the rest of the world. The divergence in economic growth was expected to send the dollar soaring. But dreams often differ from reality.

Tariffs and mass layoffs in the public sector risk slowing GDP rather than accelerating it, as indicated by the Atlanta Fed's leading indicator. No matter how much Trump talks about a golden era for the U.S., investors are losing confidence in American assets. The capital outflow from U.S. stocks signals the loss of American exceptionalism. Money flows elsewhere—to Europe, Asia, or even into U.S. Treasury bonds, which lowers yields and weakens the dollar even further.

US Stock and Bond Yield Performance

This image is no longer relevant

Euphoria continues to dominate in Germany; however, Friedrich Merz's struggles raise an important question: where are you rushing to, EUR/USD enthusiasts? The Green Party, which is essential for any amendment to the Constitution, has strongly rejected the initiative proposed by Germany's almost-chancellor. Additionally, representatives from both the left and the Alternative for Germany party have filed lawsuits against the CDU's plan to increase defense spending.

This image is no longer relevant

Nonetheless, judging by the movement of the major currency pair, investors firmly believe that Merz will succeed. Caution will give way to fiscal largesse, and the euro will soar to $1.200.

Technically, on the daily EUR/USD chart, an inside bar pattern has played out, allowing long positions to form just below 1.087. If the bulls break through the resistance zone at 1.091-1.093, the risk of the rally continuing toward 1.102 and 1.115 will increase. In such conditions, holding long positions on the euro against the U.S. dollar makes sense.

Marek Petkovich,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Os mercados ainda estão enfrentando a tempestade

O ocupante da Casa Branca não vê uma recessão na economia dos EUA e está determinado a construir um grande país. Até o momento, isso não está indo muito

Marek Petkovich 16:52 2025-03-12 UTC+2

Novo dia - Novas tarifas

Enquanto o dólar dos EUA enfrenta dificuldades de crescimento, as tarifas de 25% impostas pelo presidente Donald Trump sobre as importações de aço e alumínio entraram em vigor hoje, desencadeando

Jakub Novak 15:04 2025-03-12 UTC+2

NZD/USD:O par enfrenta dificuldades para se recuperar

O par NZD/USD está enfrentando dificuldades em suas tentativas de recuperar o nível de 0,5680-0,5675. Em meio à modesta força do dólar americano e à expectativa dos dados de inflação

Irina Yanina 14:35 2025-03-12 UTC+2

O dólar americano está se preparando para crescer

Quanto às actuais perspectivas técnicas do GBP/USD, os compradores precisam de ultrapassar a resistência mais próxima em 1,2960. Só depois de ultrapassar este nível é que podem ter como objetivo

Jakub Novak 13:22 2025-03-12 UTC+2

Temores de recessão pesam sobre o mercado de ações dos EUA (espere uma queda maior nos contratos de CFDs #NDX e #SPX)

Na segunda-feira, o mercado acionário dos EUA despencou, arrastando consigo as bolsas europeias e os mercados asiáticos no início das negociações de terça-feira. As guerras comerciais de Trump continuam

Pati Gani 15:50 2025-03-11 UTC+2

Os mercados não perdoam a traição

A liquidação do S&P 500 se acelerou em meio à indiferença da Casa Branca em relação a uma possível recessão econômica. O amplo índice de ações caiu quando Donald Trump

Marek Petkovich 15:40 2025-03-11 UTC+2

WTI - West Texas Intermediate: A recuperação do preço do petróleo continua limitada

Os preços do petróleo estão tentando se recuperar de seus níveis mais baixos desde setembro de 2024. No entanto, esse movimento de alta pode não se sustentar no curto prazo

Irina Yanina 14:11 2025-03-11 UTC+2

DXY: É possível que o dólar se recupere em breve?

O Índice do Dólar dos EUA (DXY) enfrenta dificuldades para sustentar os ganhos modestos do dia anterior, atraindo novos vendedores nesta sessão. No momento, o índice é negociado próximo

Irina Yanina 13:46 2025-03-11 UTC+2

USD/JPY: Análise e previsão.

No primeiro dia de negociação da semana, o iene japonês mantém seu impulso positivo diante do enfraquecimento do dólar dos EUA. Esse movimento é impulsionado por expectativas hawkish em relação

Irina Yanina 19:32 2025-03-10 UTC+2

A demanda por tokens voltará a crescer? Quais são as chances de uma nova queda no Bitcoin e no Ethereum?

Nas duas últimas semanas, o Bitcoin caiu abaixo do nível de US$ 91.000, que serviu como um forte nível de suporte por mais de três meses. Há esperança

Pati Gani 16:56 2025-03-10 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.